‘Avengers: Endgame’ Is One Of Marvel’s Most Frontloaded Movies (Box Office) – Forbes
So, with a $600,000 Monday gross and a new $825 million domestic cume, it should use that Tuesday bump to get over the adjusted-for-inflation domestic total of Jurassic Park. The 1993 dino adventure earned $402 million in North America (counting the $45 million in grosses from the 2013 3-D reissue) for an adjusted $825.8 million cume. Once that happens, Avengers: Endgame will be the 17th-biggest domestic earner in terms of tickets sold.
And, barring a last gasp or a reissue, that will be its last major box office milestone. It looks like the MCU epic is going to end its run with around $845 million, or maybe just enough to get past Return of the Jedi‘s $847 million adjusted-for-inflation gross. Yes, that includes its 1997 Special Edition reissue for a $309 million combined domestic cume.
Whether Disney cares about this trivial benchmark, especially if Aladdin continues to kick butt and if Toy Story 4 soars to infinity and/or beyond any more than they care about whether Avengers: Endgame gets past Avatar ($2.788 billion worldwide) is an open question. I’d argue “no,” but we’ll see. Anyway, presuming a $845 million domestic total, that will give the Russo Bros.’ sci-fi melodrama a 2.36x weekend-to-final multiplier.
Yes, that will be the most frontloaded/least-leggy $200 million-plus opener among seven current such releases. They are, in order of legs, The Force Awakens ($937 million/$248 million in 2015), Black Panther ($700 million/$202 million in 2018), Jurassic World ($652 million/$208 million in 2015), The Avengers ($623 million from a $207 million launch in 2012), The Last Jedi ($620 million/$220 million in 2017), Avengers: Infinity War ($679 million/$258 million in 2018) and Avengers: Endgame ($845 million/$357 million in 2019).
As you can see, the last two Avengers movies were the least leggy $200 million-plus openers. Although, to be fair, they are the leggiest $250 million-plus openers by default. And, obviously, Avengers 4 is the leggiest $300 million-plus opener and the leggiest $350 million-plus opener of all time.
Oh, and fun fact: both The Force Awakens and Black Panther notched the biggest opening weekends for movies that still avoided the $100 million losers club. They kept the second-weekend gross above $148 million (from a $248 million launch) and $102 (from a $202 million Fri-Sun debut) respectively. So, yes, there’s a reason I keep track of these things.
If you’re wondering, Avengers: Endgame earned (presuming an $845 million finish) 1.36x its $621 million ten-day domestic total. That’s more frontloaded than any members of the $100 million losers club save for The Twilight Saga: New Moon (1.28x) and Batman v Superman (1.27x). What this means is that it really did earn a stupendous percentage of its money (73%) in those first ten days. Nonetheless, in terms of raw legs, it is among the least leggy/most frontloaded MCU movies ever.
Yes, Detective Pikachu, Rocketman, Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Dark Phoenix took a hit. However, the damage was at least somewhat mutual. It was not unlike when Iron Man 3 ($409 million from a $174 million launch) ran headfirst into The Great Gatbsy ($144 million domestic from a $50 million launch), Star Trek Into Darkness ($228 million/$83 million) and Fast & Furious 6 ($238 million/$97 million) in May of 2013. Conversely, The Avengers merely faced two flops (Dark Shadows and Battleship) and then Men in Black 3 in weekend four over Memorial Day of 2012.
The obscene size of its opening weekend (much of the demand being already satiated) and the deluge of big and family-friendly franchise flicks (it was only the unquestionable event movie for ten days) and various other factors (all of its big scenes being turned into gifs, a general disinclination toward repeat business in the stream/binge era, the three-hour running time, etc.) led to a multiplier that qualified as merely okay. Again, when you’re dealing with a $357 million opening weekend, “just okay” is “a-okay,” but I digress.
The film currently has shorter legs than any MCU movie ever outside of Captain America: Civil War ($408 million from a $179 million launch in 2016). Once it tops $838 million, it’ll be leggier than Iron Man 3 ($409 million/$174 million in 2013). If it crawls to $857 million, then it’ll be leggier than Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459 million/$191 million in 2015).
We’re probably looking at the third-most frontloaded MCU movie thus far. No, it wasn’t nearly as leggy as, for example, Guardians of the Galaxy ($333 million/$94 million in 2014). However, minor detail, it out-grossed that movie (and Aquaman among others) on its third day of release.
I wouldn’t expect an opening weekend anywhere near as big for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Heck, even a 35% jump, akin to Revenge of the Sith ($108 million) from Attack of the Clones ($80 million), gets it to “only” $297 million. That said, longer legs than both Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame are not out of the question.
If The Last Jedi really did get dinged by not having its Christmas break start until its second Monday, which caused the post-debut weekdays to sink like a stone prior to Christmas Day, then Rise of Skywalker (which won’t have that issue this time around) may be even leggier than the last Star Wars episode. But that’s a conversation for another day.
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