No. 5 Alabama (10-1, 6-1 SEC) vs. No. 15 Auburn (8-3, 4-3 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m. CT, Saturday
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn
TV: CBS
Line: Alabama -3.5
This game will determine…
For Auburn, it’s a chance to close the regular season with a win against its biggest rival and keep its goal of a 10-win season intact. A win against Alabama would also close the door on any College Football Playoff hopes the Tide had while likely changing the perception about Auburn’s season. As several players have put it this week: A win against Alabama can fix a lot of things.
Three things to look for…
1. Can Auburn make Mac Jones uncomfortable? The Tide are without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, meaning the ball will be in the hands of redshirt sophomore Mac Jones—a quality quarterback in his own right, though certainly not on the same level as a generational talent like Tagovailoa. Jones has yet to start a road game, and he’ll be doing so this week against a vaunted Auburn defensive front in a raucous environment. It’ll be one of Auburn’s primary goals to rattle Jones and try to affect him in the pocket—but the Tigers still must get by one of the country’s best offensive lines in order to accomplish that.
2. How Bo Nix handles his first Iron Bowl. Auburn will, since the injury to Tagovailoa, have the more seasoned quarterback in this one, and the Tigers will need Nix to come through with a big-time performance. The freshman is completing 63.9 percent of his passes at home this season and has yet to throw an interception in Jordan-Hare Stadium. That’s what Auburn will need from him against Alabama, despite the fact Nix has largely struggled against top-tier competition this season, completing just 48.3 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and six interceptions against ranked opponents. If Auburn can get the former from Nix and not the latter, it should be in decent shape to pull the home upset.
3. Can Auburn establish a reliable ground threat? Auburn’s run game has struggled against quality competition this year, with the Tigers averaging just 136 yards rushing and 3.73 yards per carry in games against top-25 competition. Alabama’s run defense hasn’t been what most typically expect from the Tide, but the team is still limiting opponents to just 130.91 rushing yards per game. With Boobee Whitlow the healthiest he has been since an arthroscopic knee procedure in October and D.J. Williams still splitting carries, Auburn will need to find a consistent run game to complement a more pass-heavy attack against Alabama. In its two wins against Alabama under Gus Malzahn, Auburn has averaged 232 rushing yards; in four losses, the Tigers have averaged just 115.25 rushing yards and only eclipsed 130 yards once.
Key matchup
Auburn’s defensive line against Alabama’s offensive line. Iron Bowls are won up front, and trench warfare in college football doesn’t get much better than Auburn’s star-studded defensive line — led by Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson—against Alabama’s behemoth offensive line that features two first-rounders at tackle in Jedrick Willis and Alex Leatherwood. This matchup along the line will go a long way toward deciding the Iron Bowl, especially as it pertains to quarterback Mac Jones’ comfortability and success in the pocket.
By the numbers
5.6 — Yards per pass attempt allowed this season by Auburn’s defense, which is the third-best mark in the country. The Tigers’ secondary will face its toughest test yet against a Tide offense featuring receivers Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs and Jaylen Waddle, as Alabama averages 11.1 yards per pass attempt, which is fourth nationally.
Key injuries
Auburn — OL Austin Troxell out (ACL), OL Prince Michael Sammons out (undisclosed), RB Mark-Antony Richards out (leg), WR Ja’Varrius Johnson questionable (undisclosed), LS Bill Taylor questionable (hand), OL Mike Horton probable (knee), TE/H-back/WR Jay Jay Wilson probable (back), S Jamien Sherwood out first half (targeting suspension)
Alabama — LB Josh McMillon out (knee), RB Trey Sanders out (knee), LB Dylan Moses out (knee), OL Emil Ekiyor out (knee), DL Labryan Ray out (foot), QB Tua Tagovailoa out (hip), TE Miller Forristall out (throat), K Will Reichard doubtful (hip), DL Raekwon Davis questionable (ankle), WR Henry Ruggs probable (ribs), DL Phidarian Mathis probable (undisclosed)
Alabama player to watch
Jaylen Waddle, wide receiver/punt returner. Waddle is Alabama’s No. 4 receiver this season with 28 receptions for 455 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 16.25 yards per catch. He’s also the country’s most dynamic punt returner, leading all of FBS with an average of 24.95 yards per punt return, including one for a touchdown.
Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.
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